Yearly Visitors of all Parks since 1979

Results

  1. Grand Canyon
  2. Yosemite
  3. Yellowstone
  4. Zion
  5. Bryce Canyon
  6. Arches
  7. Capitol Reef

Here we see that Grand Canyon National Park is in the lead by a huge margin, having over 6 million people in 2 consecutive years. It’s also important to note that during approximately 2012 and 2013 all parks, except Arches and Capitol Reef, seemed to have experienced a huge exponential growth in yearly visitation. The sudden exponential decay of visitation rates in 2020 was due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Here are some park statistics.

According to the data, how do these affect the yearly visitation rates?

## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model: gaussian, link: identity
## 
## Response: YearlyVis
## 
## Terms added sequentially (first to last)
## 
## 
##                             Df         Deviance Resid. Df       Resid. Dev
## NULL                                                 3527 7320268835787259
## Hikes                        1 3135661621514508      3526 4184607214272750
## Distance_from_Major_City.mi  1  234511582791206      3525 3950095631481544
## Size_acres                   1 1960253793877555      3524 1989841837603990

I fitted a linear model (estimated using ML) to predict YearlyVis with Hotels, Hikes, Distance_from_Major_City.mi, CampUnits and Size_acres (formula: YearlyVis ~ Hotels + Hikes + Distance_from_Major_City.mi + CampUnits + Size_acres). The model’s explanatory power is substantial (R2 = 0.74). The model’s intercept, corresponding to Hotels = 0, Hikes = 0, Distance_from_Major_City.mi = 0, CampUnits = 0 and Size_acres = 0, is at 5.89e+05 (95% CI [5.11e+05, 6.67e+05], t(3522) = 14.86, p < .001). Results within this model:

  • The effect of Hikes is statistically significant and positive (beta = 7853.19, 95% CI [6036.71, 9669.68], t(3522) = 8.47, p < .001; Std. beta = 0.52, 95% CI [0.40, 0.64]) This means that typically, the more hikes there are, the more likely people will attend each year.

  • The effect of Distance from Major City mi is statistically significant and negative (beta = -92286.18, 95% CI [-99022.70, -85549.66], t(3522) = -26.85, p < .001; Std. beta = -1.18, 95% CI [-1.27, -1.09]) The farther the distance from the city, the less people will attend each year.

  • The effect of Size acres is statistically significant and positive (beta = 2.55, 95% CI [2.46, 2.63], t(3522) = 58.33, p < .001; Std. beta = 1.32, 95% CI [1.28, 1.37]) The larger the park, the more likely people will attend each year.

Standardized parameters were obtained by fitting the model on a standardized version of the dataset. 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs).

Conclusion: The results of the model seem consistent and realistic. Hotels and Camp units were not included in the model because I couldn’t connect dates to them. Furthermore, it’s interesting to point out that Grand Canyon National Park was never the highest or lowest in any of the categories, but still has the highest yearly visitation rate.

According to this data, when is the best time of year to visit each park?

My ideal conditions are:

  1. Around 50 degrees average temperature.
  2. Not over 3 inches of precipitation in past months.
  3. Least amount of people that fit into the first two paramters.

When is the best time to visit Zion?

Result: November

I fitted a linear model (estimated using ML) to predict MonthlyVisitor with Temperature (formula: MonthlyVisitor ~ Temperature) and then the same model for Precipitation. The model’s explanatory power is substantial (R2 = 0.63). The model’s intercept, corresponding to Value = 0, is at -2.05e+05 (95% CI [-2.33e+05, -1.77e+05], t(503) = -14.19, p < .001). Within this model:

  • The effect of Temperature is statistically significant and positive (beta = 7349.28, 95% CI [6862.08, 7836.48], t(503) = 29.57, p < .001; Std. beta = 0.80, 95% CI [0.74, 0.85])
  • The effect of Precipitation is statistically significant and positive (beta = 7349.28, 95% CI [6862.08, 7836.48], t(503) = 29.57, p < .001; Std. beta = 0.80, 95% CI [0.74, 0.85]) Standardized parameters were obtained by fitting the model on a standardized version of the dataset. 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs).

When is the best time to visit Arches?

Result: April or October

Best month to visit Grand Canyon National Park?

Result: March

Best month to visit Bryce Canyon?

Result: April or October

Best month to visit Capitol Reef?

Result: April or October

Best month to visit Yellowstone

Result: September

When is the best month to visit Yosemite?

Result: April or November

How did Covid-19 affect these parks?

Resources

AllTrails: Trail Guides & Maps for hiking, camping, and running. AllTrails.com. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2021, from https://www.alltrails.com/.

U.S. Department of the Interior. (n.d.). Nps.gov homepage (U.S. National Park Service). National Parks Service. Retrieved December 13, 2021, from https://www.nps.gov/index.htm.

National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2021, from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/.

Expedia travel: Vacation Homes, hotels, car rentals, Flights & More. Expedia.com. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2021, from https://www.expedia.com/.

Other information was searched though google.com